@tradingempire.en: Will Bitcoin really hit its cycle low in October? Three reasons the four-year cycle might play out differently this time By the old playbook, Bitcoin should be searching for a bottom right now. The clip gives three arguments against that, here are the numbers. According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin was priced at around 85,200 dollars on October 4, 2026, with a market capitalization of roughly 1.71 trillion dollars. Its all-time high of about 126,000 dollars dates from October 6, 2025, which leaves the price about 32 percent below that level. In earlier cycles Bitcoin fell between 77 and 93 percent from peak to trough; this time, according to Grayscale, the drawdown has been just over 40 percent. The first reason is the mechanism itself. Every halving cuts new issuance in half, but with more than 20 million Bitcoin already in circulation each cut matters less. Around 450 new Bitcoin enter the market per day, under one percent of the supply per year. The second reason is distribution. According to the data platform Bitcoin Treasuries, ETFs, public and private companies and governments together hold about 4.2 million Bitcoin, close to 20 percent of the 21 million maximum. US spot ETFs alone have taken in more than 60 billion dollars in net inflows since January 2024. The third reason is the macro backdrop. Bitwise chief strategist Matt Hougan publicly declared the four-year cycle over in December 2025, arguing that interest rates, ETFs and institutional capital now move the price more than the halving rhythm does. Grayscale noted that daily volatility has dropped from 5.3 percent in 2021 to 2.1 percent. The other side has prominent names too. Benjamin Cowen stuck with the cycle in May 2026 and named October 2026 as the most likely month for the low, with a possible retest of 60,000 dollars. Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity also sees the cycle intact. Whether artificial intelligence becomes the big theme of the next cycle remains to be seen. Which of the three arguments convinces you most, or does the cycle hold after all? This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any decision. #crypto #bitcoin #btc #bullrun

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Sunday 04 October 2026 20:05:46 GMT