@heroinekills: bitter >-< #edit #mlpedit #higurashiwhentheycry #foryoupage #whentheycry

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Monday 05 October 2026 18:36:58 GMT
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How to test your backtest for lookahead: delay every entry fill by one bar, on 15 years of E-mini S&P 500 futures minute bars. The test: take any rule, push every entry fill one minute later, and see how much of the profit survives. QuantPad ran it on four day-trading rules this channel already tested, across 3,851 ES sessions from 2011 to 2025. Before costs, the initial balance break made $135,344 with its natural fill and $95,681 one minute later. The opening range break fell from $61,013 to $18,175. 70% of its edge lived in a single minute. RSI and fair value gap were already losing, so there was nothing to lose. Is a minute always that expensive? We ran 200 seeds of random entries on the same days. The same one-minute delay cost them almost nothing on average, and 95% of seeds landed within about $9,300. The two breakout rules lost $39,366 and $42,805. After $16.50 a round turn, in an expanding walk-forward refit every year on past data only (2014 to 2025): the initial balance break made $90,569 out of sample and $56,414 delayed. The opening range made $21,963 and lost $11,589 delayed. At double costs the delayed initial balance keeps $6,947. Buy and hold made $281,425. Check the years too. 2022 alone is $51,971 of the initial balance break's $73,370 fixed-rule profit. If one bar of delay eats most of your profit, you were trading a fill, not an edge. Fifteen years of ES minute bars come included with QuantPad. No data vendor account needed. #QuantPad #backtesting #algotrading #futurestrading #tradingstrategy
How to test your backtest for lookahead: delay every entry fill by one bar, on 15 years of E-mini S&P 500 futures minute bars. The test: take any rule, push every entry fill one minute later, and see how much of the profit survives. QuantPad ran it on four day-trading rules this channel already tested, across 3,851 ES sessions from 2011 to 2025. Before costs, the initial balance break made $135,344 with its natural fill and $95,681 one minute later. The opening range break fell from $61,013 to $18,175. 70% of its edge lived in a single minute. RSI and fair value gap were already losing, so there was nothing to lose. Is a minute always that expensive? We ran 200 seeds of random entries on the same days. The same one-minute delay cost them almost nothing on average, and 95% of seeds landed within about $9,300. The two breakout rules lost $39,366 and $42,805. After $16.50 a round turn, in an expanding walk-forward refit every year on past data only (2014 to 2025): the initial balance break made $90,569 out of sample and $56,414 delayed. The opening range made $21,963 and lost $11,589 delayed. At double costs the delayed initial balance keeps $6,947. Buy and hold made $281,425. Check the years too. 2022 alone is $51,971 of the initial balance break's $73,370 fixed-rule profit. If one bar of delay eats most of your profit, you were trading a fill, not an edge. Fifteen years of ES minute bars come included with QuantPad. No data vendor account needed. #QuantPad #backtesting #algotrading #futurestrading #tradingstrategy

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