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Wednesday 14 October 2026 18:07:11 GMT
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A mid-level trough will move ashore throughout the day Wednesday, promoting large-scale ascent of a moistening airmass across the Desert Southwest to the Four Corners region. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across these areas, and given the anticipated overlap of marginal to moderate buoyancy with a highly sheared airmass, a few severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Desert Southwest to the Four Corners... Marginal instability should develop throughout the day, primarily driven by increasing low-level warm-air and moisture advection, given the ample cloud cover expected. Surface dewpoints should increase into the 60s °F, especially over central Arizona, yielding MLCAPE values exceeding 1,500 J/kg, given mid-level lapse rates of 7+ °C/km. A 50–70 kt southwesterly 500-mb jet will overspread the warm sector and accompanying southeasterly antecedent flow, yielding elongated hodographs with considerable low-level curvature. Supercell thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon, accompanied by a threat of severe wind and hail. Given the size of the low-level hodographs, a tornado or two may also occur. ...Central to Southern California Shoreline... The core of an 80-kt 500-mb jet will overspread central and southern California during the latter half of the period (00–12Z Thursday), resulting in relatively straight but highly elongated hodographs. During this time frame, a moist marine airmass will advect toward the California shoreline while being overspread by mid-level lapse rates of 6.5–7 °C/km, yielding 250–500 J/kg of short, thin MLCAPE. Given the limited buoyancy, convection should be low-topped, with short line segments and supercell modes possible. A damaging wind gust or two is the main threat with any stronger storm that reaches the shore, along with the possibility of a waterspout making landfall.#weather #wind #tornado #twister
A mid-level trough will move ashore throughout the day Wednesday, promoting large-scale ascent of a moistening airmass across the Desert Southwest to the Four Corners region. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across these areas, and given the anticipated overlap of marginal to moderate buoyancy with a highly sheared airmass, a few severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Desert Southwest to the Four Corners... Marginal instability should develop throughout the day, primarily driven by increasing low-level warm-air and moisture advection, given the ample cloud cover expected. Surface dewpoints should increase into the 60s °F, especially over central Arizona, yielding MLCAPE values exceeding 1,500 J/kg, given mid-level lapse rates of 7+ °C/km. A 50–70 kt southwesterly 500-mb jet will overspread the warm sector and accompanying southeasterly antecedent flow, yielding elongated hodographs with considerable low-level curvature. Supercell thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon, accompanied by a threat of severe wind and hail. Given the size of the low-level hodographs, a tornado or two may also occur. ...Central to Southern California Shoreline... The core of an 80-kt 500-mb jet will overspread central and southern California during the latter half of the period (00–12Z Thursday), resulting in relatively straight but highly elongated hodographs. During this time frame, a moist marine airmass will advect toward the California shoreline while being overspread by mid-level lapse rates of 6.5–7 °C/km, yielding 250–500 J/kg of short, thin MLCAPE. Given the limited buoyancy, convection should be low-topped, with short line segments and supercell modes possible. A damaging wind gust or two is the main threat with any stronger storm that reaches the shore, along with the possibility of a waterspout making landfall.#weather #wind #tornado #twister

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