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Thursday 15 October 2026 16:30:20 GMT
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In case you missed it, there’s been turmoil in AI stocks, sparked by concern over Coreweave’s debt. Here’s exactly what you need to know about the neoclouds. A few things I couldn’t fit in the video: 1. The advance rate, meaning how much neoclouds can borrow relative to the amount of money they need to spend on Capex (to buy chips and equipment) can get QUITE high, in some cases 90-95%+ depending on the credit of the “off-taker”, so from Meta for example. 2. Asset backed financing and project financing (one of the groups I worked in at Morgan Stanley) isn’t new. What is unique about these GPU backed financings are the much shorter contract length; in the power world you often see power purchase agreements of 15-20 years and assets that have a much longer useful life (think a gas turbine). In a power deal, the debt is shorter than the PPA, and the PPA is shorter than the asset’s life, which leaves a long tail. Here the loan, the contract, and the asset useful life are much closer in length, so there is a shorter tail behind the debt. Now in fairness to the neoclouds, after the off-taker's contracts end the same GPUs can be rented on an hourly basis at higher rates (at least right now) because demand for compute is so high. While Coreweave does have other types of debt, this structure accounts for over half and funded much of its massive growth over the past few years. They also have a decent amount of convertible debt, which is typically utilized by higher risk companies. 3. And finally what surprised me was the fact that on the other side, so if you look at an Anthropic’s balance sheet, “take or pay” agreements to buy the compute do not show up as a liability on the balance sheet, rather just shown as a footnote!! While this is consistent with accounting rules, it’s surprising.
In case you missed it, there’s been turmoil in AI stocks, sparked by concern over Coreweave’s debt. Here’s exactly what you need to know about the neoclouds. A few things I couldn’t fit in the video: 1. The advance rate, meaning how much neoclouds can borrow relative to the amount of money they need to spend on Capex (to buy chips and equipment) can get QUITE high, in some cases 90-95%+ depending on the credit of the “off-taker”, so from Meta for example. 2. Asset backed financing and project financing (one of the groups I worked in at Morgan Stanley) isn’t new. What is unique about these GPU backed financings are the much shorter contract length; in the power world you often see power purchase agreements of 15-20 years and assets that have a much longer useful life (think a gas turbine). In a power deal, the debt is shorter than the PPA, and the PPA is shorter than the asset’s life, which leaves a long tail. Here the loan, the contract, and the asset useful life are much closer in length, so there is a shorter tail behind the debt. Now in fairness to the neoclouds, after the off-taker's contracts end the same GPUs can be rented on an hourly basis at higher rates (at least right now) because demand for compute is so high. While Coreweave does have other types of debt, this structure accounts for over half and funded much of its massive growth over the past few years. They also have a decent amount of convertible debt, which is typically utilized by higher risk companies. 3. And finally what surprised me was the fact that on the other side, so if you look at an Anthropic’s balance sheet, “take or pay” agreements to buy the compute do not show up as a liability on the balance sheet, rather just shown as a footnote!! While this is consistent with accounting rules, it’s surprising.
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