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@thisnery: Tg - FRYKEK
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Friday 16 October 2026 14:10:33 GMT
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Izinnn🙏🏻#fyp #viraltiktok #almusthofalanggarsari #CicipRasaKuliner #hadrahjatim
➡️ Quant Finance From Scratch, part 2: the random walk and the drift, with 12 lines of Python you can follow line by line. Two questions guide the video: what exactly is a random walk, and what does the drift do? Step 1, the coin. Heads moves the price up one dollar, tails moves it down one dollar, and every flip is fifty fifty. Step 2, the walk. Add up 1,000 flips from a start of $100 and you get a random walk. Ours rallies to $125, crashes to $86 and climbs back to a new high of $131, and every step was a fair coin that never remembered a single flip. Our eyes find patterns even in pure chance. Step 3, the drift. Give the coin the casino's edge from part 1, 19 out of 37. The expected value of one step is plus 2.7 cents, and that small push is called the drift. Step 4, a thousand prices. Over 4,000 steps they spread out wildly and on average follow the drift line, which ends $108 higher. Step 5, short run and long run. After 25 steps, 43 % of the prices are below their start. After 1,000 steps it is 20 %, and after 4,000 steps only 4 %. The drift grows with every step while the randomness only grows with the square root, so after 1,368 steps the drift is bigger than one standard deviation of the randomness, exactly like the casino's edge in part 1. What it means: in the simplest model of a stock price, the drift is the average return and the random steps are the risk. For stocks, part of the drift is the equity risk premium, the reward investors expect for carrying that risk. It is an expectation, and over any stretch of time the random part can still win. The honest part: this is a first model. Real prices move in percent, have calm and wild phases and sometimes jump, and later parts add all of that. Everything is simulated with a fixed seed, nothing was downloaded, and every number in the video comes from a real run of the code. This video is for education only, and nothing in it is financial advice. #quantfinance #randomwalk #python #probability #stockmarket
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