I have Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeating Republican Mike Rogers by 3.7 percentage points in Michigan's 2026 Senate election. I've actually had this race rated Lean Democratic for months, even over the summer when many people considered it a tossup or potentially Republican-leaning. El-Sayed was initially considered a less conventional Democratic candidate compared to his primary opponent, Haley Stevens. However, I think he's built considerable support throughout his campaign and has demonstrated an ability to connect with voters who want to see the Democratic Party move in a more progressive direction. Meanwhile, I think Rogers has struggled to capitalize on what could have been a competitive opportunity for Republicans. His campaign hasn't been particularly effective at challenging El-Sayed on the issues, and I personally thought Rogers performed poorly in the debates. Instead, El-Sayed has frequently been the one putting Rogers on the defensive. Turnout is another major factor behind my prediction. I think El-Sayed could generate strong enthusiasm in Michigan's Democratic-leaning cities and communities with large Muslim populations. Rogers, on the other hand, will likely need strong participation from voters who supported Donald Trump, including those who don't consistently vote in midterm elections. Michigan has also produced several extremely competitive statewide elections, including its Senate races in 2020 and 2024. However, the state's 2022 midterms demonstrated that Democrats can perform considerably better when Republican presidential voters don't turn out at the same levels. With what I expect to be a favorable national environment for Democrats in 2026, I think this could benefit El-Sayed. I've consistently believed Democrats could win this race by approximately two to four points, even when the conventional wisdom was considerably more skeptical. Recent polling and public discussion have become more consistent with that possibility, but my overall assessment hasn't changed much. Ultimately, I still expect Michigan's Senate election to be competitive, which is why I'm not predicting an overwhelming victory. However, I currently have El-Sayed winning by 3.7 points, and I'm sticking with the Lean Democratic rating I've maintained for months. #michigan #abdulelsayed #midtermelections2026 #politics #trump - @predictthevote