I currently have Republican Anthony Constantino defeating Democrat Blake Gendebien by 5.1 percentage points in New York’s 21st Congressional District. This is a pretty Republican district, with both Donald Trump and incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik winning it comfortably in 2024. However, I think this race could be much more competitive in 2026, especially with Stefanik retiring and no incumbent on the ballot. One major factor is the district’s location along the Canadian border. With all the controversy surrounding Trump’s tariffs, trade disputes with Canada, and immigration policies, I think some voters in northern New York could be frustrated with the current administration. These issues are especially relevant in communities that depend on cross-border trade and agriculture. I also think Blake Gendebien is a strong candidate for this district. He’s a dairy farmer, which gives him a background that fits the region’s agricultural communities. With farmers facing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade, I think his experience could help him connect with voters. Meanwhile, Constantino has closely aligned himself with Trump, which could be an advantage among Republican voters but might also create challenges in a less favorable national environment. Still, we can’t ignore how Republican this district has become. Voters have repeatedly supported Elise Stefanik, although parts of the district have historically been more Democratic, particularly before the Trump era. I also think incumbency has played an important role here, especially when looking at how the district changed between the 2012 and 2014 elections. Without Stefanik on the ballot, that dynamic changes. The New York governor’s race between Kathy Hochul and Bruce Blakeman could also influence this contest. If Hochul performs strongly across upstate New York, that could help Gendebien. However, if Blakeman performs better than expected in the region, it could benefit Constantino. I think the statewide political environment will be important in determining how competitive NY-21 becomes. Some political analysts have also been treating this race as more competitive than its recent voting history would suggest, and polling has indicated a potentially closer contest. I think candidate quality, the absence of an incumbent, and the national political environment could all contribute to a significant shift toward Democrats. Ultimately, though, I still think the district’s Republican voting history gives Constantino enough room to hold on, even with Gendebien running a competitive campaign. #newyork #blakegendebien #politics #midtermelections2026 #trump - @predictthevote