Nick Powers
Region: US
Wednesday 21 October 2026 06:35:30 GMT
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Crutcher Dunnavant :
no. independent variables my dude.
2026-10-21 08:22:41
38
Dawindbag :
This is just the Monty Hall problem. And I will never accept the explanation for either.
2026-10-22 05:11:09
5
The Slackers’ Table :
Is there any likelihood at all that the second child was also a boy born on a Tuesday? And if so, would that change the matter at all?
2026-10-26 20:43:22
0
Corwin :
I think it's just 50-50 and the rest is probability voodoo that means nothing.
2026-10-21 17:12:31
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Red Wolf :
That’s not how probability works. The gender and day of the week of the first child has nothing to do with the gender of the second child.
2026-10-21 11:59:04
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butterfine :
I believe with all variations of these riddles, you have to add in the 2nd possibility of (x,x). In this case, Tues Male. It represents the actual kid you're being told about, of which there are two possibilities. This makes the total possibilities 28, making the probability 14/28 or 50%. This also works in the simpler variant of the riddle so that instead of 2/3 you get 2/4, still 50%.
2026-10-21 13:21:41
7
Jamie Moore :
This particular calculation is not taking into account that there are biological intersex people. Although it makes up a small percentage of humanity, it is still a factor.
2026-10-21 12:29:39
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Saru :
Am I missing something? What does Tuesday have to do with anything? Seems like random data to confuse the person trying to answer the question. Anyway, none of this data matters because probability is not affected by previous results. The odds of a child being male or female is 50/50 (roughly, I believe the actual chances are skewed very slightly in the direction of a child being female but let's just say it's equal). That means that the chances of her second child being a girl is 50%. Think about it like this: if you flip a coin and get heads, then the probability of getting tails on your second flip doesn't magically go up. Each flip is unaffected by the previous flip, there isn't a computer engine running in the background of reality to make sure everything levels out. That's why if you ever do a basic statistics experiment like flipping a coin 100 times and recording the results, you are going to get "statistically unlikely" streaks of heads or tails in a row (I did one in college and I got 15 heads in a row, which following the idea of multiplicative probability would be like a 0.000031% chance of happening which sounds impossible but I wasn't the only person with similar anomalies)
2026-10-21 09:49:25
0
Jimmy :
I hate this question because it ignores the real world data we have on it in favor of hypothetical data assuming an even distribution of births across all days and genders
2026-10-21 18:39:24
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Crim :
"One is a" is a firm establishment clause that I refuse to walk away from, 100% female
2026-10-22 14:02:10
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Ploo :
What were the odds of having a girl as the next child after the first boy was born?
2026-10-21 21:08:56
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bruceparker123 :
the day of the week wasn't included in the chance of it being a boy. the day of the week has nothing to do with it.
2026-10-21 10:46:27
7
wren :
this assumes birth rates are identical for boys and girls, and that births are equally likely to happen on any day of the week.
2026-10-21 09:01:54
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Gray Glass :
It is widely believed but incorrect to assume that a piece of knowledge that makes one case impossible has no impact on the odds of the other cases. If you enumerate the possible cases differently, more thoroughly, you get exactly 50%, agreeing with common sense. "Have you met my son?" Compute the odds of the other child being a daughter. "He was born on leap Day." Suddenly the odds transform completely. No, that is a mistake.
2026-10-21 09:14:21
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Houshou Rattengod :
Sorry. But it’s still just 50/50. Because the previous child’s gender has no bearing on what the next one will be.
2026-10-21 23:41:26
0
sevenders :
as a sanity test have you considered that the probability changes if you include the time that the first child was born
2026-10-21 11:38:38
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Ardvark :
To quote the speed run of beethoven's symphony, "that's not how this works, that's not how any of this works".
2026-10-22 00:19:27
5
Eddie Price :
Gardner famously admitted that these types of questions are ambiguous, and the answer depends on how the information was obtained. Was Mary randomly selected out of all people with two children, at least one of which is a boy born on a Tuesday? If so, roughly 51.8% is correct. Was Mary randomly selected from all people with two children, and then we later found out the incidental information that at least one of her children was a boy born on a Tuesday? Different answer.
2026-10-23 15:08:44
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Andrew :
it doesn't say What is the probability they end up having one boy and one girl. it says "the other child is a girl" meaning it's an independent test unrelated to the first child.
2026-10-21 22:32:31
0
Batrabbit :
Oh this is a misuse/tricky way to use math. The riddle is using past info as pretext to pad the numbers. In reality having a boy/ girl is not dependent on any other factor that happened before it. It’s close to 50% weighted little to girl.
2026-10-21 12:13:54
1
Just a Dad :
In your first spreadsheet, you ony crossed out option 4, but we also know that option 3 is not true as 1 Kid (or by the transitive property, Kid 1) is male, so it goes back to 50/50, right?
2026-10-21 20:46:18
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ttrider76 :
What if one was a boy born at 11:32 am? Then what would the probability be?
2026-10-21 12:37:14
2
Liv :
I think the second child is a girl because nobody would say “I have two children, one is a boy and the other is also a boy” /j
2026-10-24 16:03:29
2
jhawkwba :
It pushes the odds a lot, though, right? Like 15%?
2026-10-21 09:08:23
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Jonathan :
This "brain teaser" is kind of ridiculous. Why not add the specific date and time as well? Adding more and more nonsense variables. The limit does exist and it is 50%.
2026-10-21 21:25:27
2
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