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Wednesday 21 October 2026 18:15:28 GMT
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I currently have Democrat Rebecca Cooke defeating incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden by 4.1 percentage points in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, flipping the seat blue. I think Rebecca Cooke is a really good fit for this district. She has a working-class background, grew up on a dairy farm, and has taken a more populist approach to her campaign. I think that could resonate with voters in western Wisconsin, especially in rural communities that have historically supported Democrats but have shifted toward Republicans in recent elections. Cooke was also the Democratic nominee in 2024, when she narrowly lost to Van Orden by about 2.7 percentage points. However, that was a presidential election year when Wisconsin voted for Donald Trump by a narrow margin. Trump also carried WI-03 by approximately 7 points, meaning Cooke significantly outperformed Kamala Harris in the district. I think that’s a pretty encouraging sign for her heading into 2026, especially considering the different political environment I’m expecting this year. Another important factor is the district’s political history. WI-03 is an ancestrally Democratic district that was represented by Democrat Ron Kind for decades before Van Orden flipped it Republican in 2022. Although the district has shifted considerably toward Republicans during the Trump era, I think there are still opportunities for Democrats to reconnect with some of these voters. Issues like tariffs, agriculture, and the economy could be particularly important in a district with so many rural and working-class communities. I also think Cooke’s ability to appeal to different parts of the Democratic Party is interesting. She has received support from more moderate Democrats as well as progressive figures like Bernie Sanders. I think that combination could help her build a broad coalition of voters, especially with her more populist messaging and emphasis on working-class issues. Meanwhile, Derrick Van Orden is a more conservative Republican, and I think some of his positions could become liabilities in a Democratic-friendly political environment. However, we also can’t underestimate him. He flipped this district in 2022 and successfully defended it in 2024, so he has already demonstrated that he can win competitive elections here. He also has the advantage of incumbency, and the district’s recent Republican voting history shouldn’t be ignored. Ultimately, though, I think the national political environment will make the biggest difference. I’m expecting 2026 to be a Democratic wave year, and I think ancestrally Democratic districts like WI-03 could shift considerably toward Democrats in an off-year election. Combined with Cooke’s candidate quality, working-class background, and previous performance in the district, I think that could be enough for Democrats to flip this seat. #wisconsin #rebeccacooke #trump #politics #midtermelections
I currently have Democrat Rebecca Cooke defeating incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden by 4.1 percentage points in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, flipping the seat blue. I think Rebecca Cooke is a really good fit for this district. She has a working-class background, grew up on a dairy farm, and has taken a more populist approach to her campaign. I think that could resonate with voters in western Wisconsin, especially in rural communities that have historically supported Democrats but have shifted toward Republicans in recent elections. Cooke was also the Democratic nominee in 2024, when she narrowly lost to Van Orden by about 2.7 percentage points. However, that was a presidential election year when Wisconsin voted for Donald Trump by a narrow margin. Trump also carried WI-03 by approximately 7 points, meaning Cooke significantly outperformed Kamala Harris in the district. I think that’s a pretty encouraging sign for her heading into 2026, especially considering the different political environment I’m expecting this year. Another important factor is the district’s political history. WI-03 is an ancestrally Democratic district that was represented by Democrat Ron Kind for decades before Van Orden flipped it Republican in 2022. Although the district has shifted considerably toward Republicans during the Trump era, I think there are still opportunities for Democrats to reconnect with some of these voters. Issues like tariffs, agriculture, and the economy could be particularly important in a district with so many rural and working-class communities. I also think Cooke’s ability to appeal to different parts of the Democratic Party is interesting. She has received support from more moderate Democrats as well as progressive figures like Bernie Sanders. I think that combination could help her build a broad coalition of voters, especially with her more populist messaging and emphasis on working-class issues. Meanwhile, Derrick Van Orden is a more conservative Republican, and I think some of his positions could become liabilities in a Democratic-friendly political environment. However, we also can’t underestimate him. He flipped this district in 2022 and successfully defended it in 2024, so he has already demonstrated that he can win competitive elections here. He also has the advantage of incumbency, and the district’s recent Republican voting history shouldn’t be ignored. Ultimately, though, I think the national political environment will make the biggest difference. I’m expecting 2026 to be a Democratic wave year, and I think ancestrally Democratic districts like WI-03 could shift considerably toward Democrats in an off-year election. Combined with Cooke’s candidate quality, working-class background, and previous performance in the district, I think that could be enough for Democrats to flip this seat. #wisconsin #rebeccacooke #trump #politics #midtermelections

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