Nick Powers
Region: US
Friday 23 October 2026 05:53:17 GMT
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Theron Corse :
This is why so many people guess wrong on the Monty Hall problem.
2026-10-23 10:34:43
7
They'once :
math often "feels" wrong. like the Monty Hall problem
2026-10-23 09:08:11
413
epcummins :
The question you reference is much more a matter of semantics and incomplete/contradictory information than one of simple math.
2026-10-23 17:08:21
33
Nick beat Consort first try :
People are still arguing it in this comment section, which is hilarious because it’s not 50%
2026-10-24 21:12:01
4
Username :
the Wikipedia article you pointed to does not agree with your analysis. it points out ambiguity in the question, noting that, depending on interpretation, the probability might be 1/2.
2026-10-23 16:00:30
28
Greg Fish :
As someone with a degree in applied math that required years of statistics, people are absolutely horrible at dealing with non-intuitive mathematical concepts and results. The mental dissonance breaks them
2026-10-25 15:47:58
2
JP O'Hara :
I've found that nearly every time there's a debate about these kind of things (like the airplane on a treadmill), people don't disagree because of the science or the math, but because they're interpreting the problem differently. I mean damn, that Wikipedia article has a whole section on "analysis of the ambiguity"
2026-10-23 11:56:55
77
RaeLynn :
I didn't know the math at first but you made it very understandable in that video. And the facts on this video make me worry about the state of things
2026-10-23 09:01:28
12
Obby Kanobi :
Math doesn’t make it right probability of 2 uncorrelated events don’t effect each other.
2026-10-23 23:46:18
0
tiktok :
The problem feels more like a language/ambiguity problem rather than a math problem.
2026-10-23 17:28:09
23
Mizzie 🐌 :
More people need to realize that it’s ok to be wrong. It’s ok to not know something or not understand it. And it’s ok to listen to people who are smarter than you. Somewhere along the line we started to see these things as personal failures to be ashamed of and they aren’t. They are actually signs of intelligence
2026-10-23 14:39:44
5
Two Dots on a Page :
Me when talking to anyone who hasn’t actually worked in the medium of gen ai for a year and yet assumes to speak on authority regarding the craft.
2026-10-26 14:54:03
1
BigDaddyCoolDieselOH :
It’s 50%. The only possibly combinations are BB and BG.
2026-10-24 09:45:43
0
tehlaser🏳️⚧️ :
the thing is this feels SO wrong that people are SURE that if, objectively, the math is correct, then math itself must be wrong
2026-10-25 00:59:04
1
screamingincoherently :
people don't even get the Monty Hall problem. this is a pretty far reach
2026-10-23 15:12:10
26
Michelle 📚 :
Some people never took statistics and it shows
2026-10-23 08:29:19
33
qwertyuiopasdfghjklqryf :
people when a paradox isn't intuitive:
2026-10-23 23:29:15
5
TinyPanda :
that ending changed something in my brain. "if u believe something is correct and u haven't actually looked it up and studied it then ur belief is just a belief"
2026-10-23 08:21:03
107
Ryanxiety :
Another example is the .9 repeating is equal to 1. It's clearly mathematically correct, and people still argue against it
2026-10-23 17:18:51
8
ChaoticNonsense :
What I found going all the way through a math PhD is that of all math subjects, conditional probability is uniquely suited for giving counterintuitive results
2026-10-23 15:02:39
7
Spero21 :
It does not feel correct because it is not correct. If I am wrong, please respond to the math. The problem is not like two coins. Children are born in order, not simultaneously. Child M is male. Child M could be the older child or the younger child. This means MX or XM, both with a 50% probability. In the choice is MX, there is a 50% chance that X is male, and 50% for female, so Mm or Mf. In the choice of Xm, the probability that X is male, mM, is 50%, and 50% for female, fM. So if one child is Male, the set of outcomes is: Mm, mM, Mf, fM.
2026-10-25 01:17:24
0
KJ :
The problem doesn't provide enough information about what population Mary is selected from and her motivations for providing the information. Assuming that probabilities are evenly distributed between outcomes is like saying that winning the lottery is a 1 out of 2 chance because you either win or lose.
2026-10-24 04:35:13
4
Matthew Rutledge❌ :
I’d have to see the solution and the reasoning as to how the sending child’s gender is related to the first. I’ll look it up
2026-10-23 13:23:25
2
FelaniaSoul :
Yeah I don’t get why people are so afraid to be wrong
2026-10-24 02:37:25
0
LaughterinLight PhD :
When math is rage bait….
2026-10-25 09:54:18
2
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