@tampabaystormchaser: 10/25/26 windy in Tampa Bay and Florida peninsula through 10/28/26- with peak winds 10/25 Sunday afternoon. Coastal flooding east coast of Florida. Windy Tampa Bay Weather Analysis - low pressure forming east of Florida: — Analysis of the atmospheric and oceanic physics: Low pressure forming east of Florida along a retreating stationary front will create a pressure gradient with high pressure to the north- leading to windy conditions and wind gusts of 30-40 mph across the Florida peninsula and Tampa Bay- especially 10/25/26 Sunday during the afternoon. Gusty afternoon wind periods will take place until 10/28/26. Counterclockwise flow around a low to the southeast of Florida and clockwise flow around a high to the northwest of Florida will help to drive a strong east to northeast wind across the peninsula. Coastal flooding moderate to major levels is expected along Floridas east coast- especially southeast Florida - Tampa Bay is less likely to see coastal flooding due to strong northeast winds pushing water out of Tampa Bay at high tides. Overall rain chances remain low for Tampa Bay with only short lived light showers along the Bay or slightly inland around Tampa Bay next 5 days. Google deepmind ensembles, gfs and ecmwf physics based operation and ensembles, and gfs/ecmwf artificial intelligence operationals and ensembles support a frontal low with windy conditions- with the frontal low driven by horizontal surface temperature gradient factors- surface fluxes in temperature- classical cold front processes. Recall that gfs and ecmwf, like all major weather algorithms used in the tropics and mid latitudes, have an operational main run, and then ensembles which are combinations of each algorithm- 30-50 combinations of track and intensity of a low pressure center or weather phenomenon wherein one starting condition (temperature, dew point, wind speed, humidity, etc) is altered to generate each ensemble. There are 4 sets- physics based operational and ensembles, and artificial intelligence based operational and ensembles for each major algorithm. The major algorithms employed here are gfs, ecmwf, and Google deepmind. As the low meanders east of Florida there’s a small chance it may acquire a warm core surface to deep layer, Separate from the front, acquire and maintain a central dense overcast of convection and hence tropical development featuring latent heat release, lowering pressures, and persistent convection around the center- but regardless of tropical development- the low will move away from Florida. Given the amount of shear- change of wind speed and direction with height, tropical development chances are low. For a tropical cyclone to form- you need vertical stacking of low, mid, and upper level centers along with upper level clockwise rotating anticyclone high to help ventilate the low and aid in divergence. Divergence is mass being pulled out of the top of the low and therefore inducing moisture and convection to rush into the bottom to replace mass lost- adhering to fundamental physical principles of conservation of mass and angular momentum. As mass is evacuated out of the top- pressure falls occur. Water temperatures are more than warm enough, but anticyclone is lacking and shear is high. Regardless, impacts will be the same- whether it is a tropical or nontropical low- windy hazardous boating conditions, gusts 35-45 mph across the Florida peninsula and Tampa Bay, and east coast coastal flooding moderate to major. . #tampabay #weather #hurricane #stormchasing #hurricaneseason

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Monday 26 October 2026 02:20:03 GMT