@predictthevote: I currently have North Carolina flipping to the Democrats this year, and I think this is one of their easiest opportunities to flip a Republican-held Senate seat. Incumbent Republican Thom Tillis decided not to seek reelection after facing criticism from the MAGA wing of his party for being too moderate, leaving this seat open in what could be a favorable year for Democrats. Democrats have nominated former Governor Roy Cooper, who also served as North Carolina's attorney general. Cooper has never lost an election and has won several competitive statewide races, sometimes by pretty large margins. He's a well-known and generally popular figure in North Carolina politics, and I think his strong connection to the state gives him a major advantage in this race. Meanwhile, Republicans have nominated former RNC chairman Michael Whatley, who I think is a relatively weak candidate compared to Cooper. Whatley has never held elected office and is more closely associated with the national Republican Party. While both candidates were recruited by their respective parties, Cooper has a much stronger history of winning elections in North Carolina. Polling has also consistently shown Cooper with a significant lead. However, I do think some people are overestimating how large Cooper's victory could be. North Carolina has historically been very competitive in federal elections, and we saw this in 2020 when Democrats were expected to have a good chance of flipping the seat, but Tillis ultimately won reelection. Even with Cooper's advantages and a potentially favorable national environment for Democrats, I still expect North Carolina's Republican voting base to keep this race somewhat competitive. Ultimately, I have Roy Cooper winning by 6.2 percentage points, a comfortable Democratic victory but not quite the landslide some polls have suggested. #northcarolina #roycooper #trump #politics #midtermelections

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Monday 26 October 2026 20:25:55 GMT