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@ninonino4680: eshrefis sizmari🎭 #ფორიუზე #გლობალ🌍 #ფორიუმეთქიიიიიიიიიიიი

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Tuesday 27 October 2026 09:04:59 GMT
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The Paper That Says Own Zero Bonds
 The strongest paper against owning bonds buys 27 percent of them at 65. Amazon sold $14 billion of Canadian dollar bonds in June. Alphabet $8.5 billion in May. IBM came back after 14 years. Record $33.8 billion year for it, and 0.9 percent of a broad Canadian bond fund is now US tech debt that didn't exist 2 years ago. So people are asking whether they should own any of it. There's a serious answer that says no. Anarkulova, Cederburg and O'Doherty. 39 countries, 1890 to 2023, a million simulated lifetimes. All stocks, all the time. A 7 percent chance of running out of money against 19.7 for the funds that get more conservative as you age. They publish the price too. The typical worst drop along the way is 56 percent. 1 lifetime in 100 drops 91. And then the part that doesn't get quoted. They also ran a version where the model picks the mix at every age instead of holding one for life. That one buys 27 percent short-term government bonds at 65, 7 percent by 68, and zero by 70. Cederburg's own explanation is the order of returns. So the argument was never really whether. It's how many years, and when. Two notes before anyone asks. It's a working paper, not peer reviewed. And Emory funded it, not Dimensional. Full breakdown, including Asness and Swedroe on the other side, is in the guide in the community.
The Paper That Says Own Zero Bonds
 The strongest paper against owning bonds buys 27 percent of them at 65. Amazon sold $14 billion of Canadian dollar bonds in June. Alphabet $8.5 billion in May. IBM came back after 14 years. Record $33.8 billion year for it, and 0.9 percent of a broad Canadian bond fund is now US tech debt that didn't exist 2 years ago. So people are asking whether they should own any of it. There's a serious answer that says no. Anarkulova, Cederburg and O'Doherty. 39 countries, 1890 to 2023, a million simulated lifetimes. All stocks, all the time. A 7 percent chance of running out of money against 19.7 for the funds that get more conservative as you age. They publish the price too. The typical worst drop along the way is 56 percent. 1 lifetime in 100 drops 91. And then the part that doesn't get quoted. They also ran a version where the model picks the mix at every age instead of holding one for life. That one buys 27 percent short-term government bonds at 65, 7 percent by 68, and zero by 70. Cederburg's own explanation is the order of returns. So the argument was never really whether. It's how many years, and when. Two notes before anyone asks. It's a working paper, not peer reviewed. And Emory funded it, not Dimensional. Full breakdown, including Asness and Swedroe on the other side, is in the guide in the community.

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