@quantpad: 10am reversal strategy backtest: Powell Trades' "10am Trading Guide" setup tested on 15 years of Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures, every session 2011-2025. He says the setup "has been weirdly consistent": at 10:00 ET, whatever the first move is, look for the opposite. We coded it as he explains it. If the first 5-minute candle runs one way with no wick against it, wait for two 1-minute closes back through the 10:00 price, enter there with a limit, 20-point stop, 5R target (100 points), out by 2 p.m. One contract, $16.50 a round turn, every E-mini Nasdaq (NQ) and S&P (ES) session. Nasdaq: 1,651 clean first moves. By the 2 p.m. close, price went the opposite way 39.8% of the time and kept going 59.7%. After an up first move it closed below 10:00 only 35.2% of the time, against 45.9% on any day. Traded his way: 798 trades, the 100-point target hit 2.0% of the time (break even at 5R is 16.7%), -$23,507 net, -$36,674 at double costs. ES: 766 trades, -$9,214. The same entries taken WITH the first move: -$4,072. His no-trade filter for a wide overnight session: -$13,212. Walked forward: the best of 36 settings (1-3 closes, 10-30 point stops, 2-5R), re-picked every year from 2014 on prior years only and traded the next year, lost $12,218 on NQ and $6,804 on ES. A stop beyond the high or low since 10:00 made +$8,483 on NQ in-sample, and lost at double costs. Not modelled: his read of liquidity targets and bias, and his news filter. He says it should not be traded too mechanically; this tests the mechanical core. Takeaway: don't fade the 10 a.m. move. On the Nasdaq, 6 in 10 kept going. Every CME futures trade since 2010 is built into QuantPad. I built this in QuantPad. Link in bio. #QuantPad #backtesting #daytrading #futurestrading #tradingstrategy

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Saturday 31 October 2026 01:12:24 GMT