🚨 XMIGSTER POLITICS PROJECTION — MINNESOTA U.S. SENATE With just 7 days until Election Day, my latest projection has Peggy Flanagan (DFL) at 52.60% and Michele Tafoya (R) at 47.40%, a projected Democratic margin of D+5.20. This is a pre-election projection based on my assessment of the race and the overall political environment, not actual election results. My forecast shows Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate Peggy Flanagan defeating Republican Michele Tafoya, maintaining Democratic control of Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seat. Minnesota has one of the longest Democratic presidential voting streaks in the United States, having supported the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1976. However, Minnesota’s statewide elections have frequently been competitive, with Republicans remaining capable of challenging Democrats in closely divided political environments. The 2026 Senate election is taking place following Democratic Senator Tina Smith’s decision not to seek reelection, creating an open-seat contest. Flanagan has served as Minnesota’s lieutenant governor since 2019 and previously represented a district in the Minnesota House of Representatives. Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, is seeking to return the Senate seat to Republican control. Democrats have held both of Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seats since 2009, when Al Franken joined Amy Klobuchar in the Senate. My projection gives Flanagan 52.60% of the vote, suggesting a Democratic victory by slightly more than five percentage points. Minnesota’s political geography could play a major role in determining the final result. The Twin Cities metropolitan area, particularly Minneapolis, Saint Paul, and their surrounding suburbs, provides a substantial portion of the state’s Democratic vote. Republicans maintain considerable strength in rural communities, agricultural regions, and portions of central, western, and southern Minnesota. The Iron Range and northeastern Minnesota also have distinctive political histories, with some traditionally Democratic communities becoming more competitive in recent elections. A Flanagan victory would maintain Democratic control of the seat and preserve an important part of the party’s representation in the U.S. Senate. It would also be historically significant, as Flanagan would become the first Native American woman elected to the United States Senate. With a projected margin of 5.20 percentage points, my forecast suggests a competitive election, although Flanagan would finish with a majority of the statewide vote. As both parties compete for control of the Senate, Minnesota’s open-seat election could play an important role in determining the chamber’s political balance. 📅 Election Day: November 3, 2026 📊 Projected margin: D+5.20 Will Peggy Flanagan maintain Democratic control of Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seat and make history, or could Michele Tafoya overcome the projected Democratic advantage and deliver a Republican upset? 👀 #Minnesota #MNSen #PeggyFlanagan #MicheleTafoya #MinnesotaPolitics - @xmigsterpolitics