Ohio’s 9th District is another race where I currently have Democrats barely holding on, but I think some people are overestimating how comfortable Marcy Kaptur’s position is. The district was recently redrawn to become more Republican, and Trump would have carried the new boundaries by about 10.6 percentage points in 2024. Kaptur is a strong electoral overperformer, but that is still a difficult partisan lean for any Democrat to overcome. Kaptur also barely survived in 2024, defeating Derek Merrin by less than one percentage point under the previous boundaries. Merrin is challenging her again, so Republicans already have a candidate who came very close to winning this seat. I don’t think her history of outperforming other Democrats means we should overlook how narrow that last result was, especially now that the district has become even less favorable. However, this time she’s running in a midterm rather than a presidential election with Trump on the ballot. I expect the more Democratic national environment to help her offset the tougher boundaries and retain enough crossover voters to survive. Kaptur has served since 1983 and is the longest-serving woman in congressional history, giving her longstanding local connections that a newer Democratic candidate would struggle to match. Ultimately, I think this seat’s competitiveness depends heavily on Kaptur herself. Whenever she retires, I would expect Republicans to have a much stronger opportunity to flip it. For now, I think her personal support and the national environment will barely outweigh the district’s Republican lean. I currently have Marcy Kaptur winning by 1.3 percentage points, narrowly keeping the seat in Democratic hands. #trump #marcykaptur #ohio #politics #midtermelections - @predictthevote