Alaska’s governor’s race is one of the most interesting opportunities for Democrats this year, especially after the complicated primary. Alaska advances its top four candidates regardless of party, and Democrats Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich initially finished first and second. Begich then withdrew and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins, leaving him against Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Treg Taylor. Taylor was briefly disqualified over financial reporting issues before being restored to the ballot, adding another complication to an already unusual race. I think that leaves Democrats in a strong position with their support consolidated behind one candidate. Ranked-choice voting allows Republican votes to transfer between candidates, so having three Republicans doesn’t automatically divide their final-round vote. However, voters who only rank one candidate can have their ballots exhausted when that candidate is eliminated. I think incomplete rankings and disagreements among the Republican candidates could help Kreiss-Tomkins, particularly if Wilson advances to the final round as I expect. Kreiss-Tomkins is a former state representative from Sitka, and I think his independent-minded and bipartisan image is an especially good fit for Alaska. Lisa Murkowski’s endorsement is a major boost because it reinforces his ability to appeal beyond Democratic voters. Alaska traditionally leans Republican, but it also has a strong independent streak, and I think voters are willing to cross party lines for someone they see as practical and focused on the state’s own issues, including its high cost of living. I’m much less impressed with Wilson, whose background as a conservative activist doesn’t strike me as the strongest foundation for building a broad statewide coalition. Kreiss-Tomkins has fundraising strength, encouraging polling, and crossover support, which I think gives Democrats a real opportunity to flip this seat. The range of possible outcomes is wide enough that I could even see a double-digit win, but I currently have Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins defeating Bernadette Wilson by 7.2 percentage points in the final ranked-choice round. #alaska #jonathankreisstomkins #politics #trump #midtermelections2026 - @predictthevote