@kantrowitz: Why do AI forecasts keep failing? Wharton professor Ethan Mollick has a theory. "I think super forecasters keep getting this wrong over and over again." His reason: "It's really hard to predict an exponential. The labs have been right. We have been on an exponential curve with a fast doubling time." The mistake he sees: "People keep not being able to forecast that we are still on an exponential curve. So, they keep making plans for what's on today. Today's about vibe coding. Today's about token maxing. Today's about lowering token costs." And his warning: "Those are very temporary situations as long as the exponential continues." For founders: if your plan assumes today's tools, costs and limits stay as they are, you're planning for a snapshot. Build for where the curve is going, not where it is. Media: Big Technology Podcast #EthanMollick #AI #Founders #Startups #VentureCapital

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