Mercier Beaumont
Region: US
Monday 02 November 2026 04:49:35 GMT
1989
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Mercier Beaumont :
The setup: a Gulf disturbance pushing tropical moisture ashore on east winds. Flood watch for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade. 15 minutes before the crash, a nearby NWS station reported thunderstorms in the vicinity, 3 mi visibility, gusts to 19 kt.
2026-11-02 05:05:41
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Mercier Beaumont :
RCCA view. Supported by data: storm core at FL350, turbulence, ice crystals, Mach 0.9, a bank never rolled out. Open: iced pitot/static, autopilot or trim behavior, engine rollback, radar picture, routing, training. Weakened: breakup aloft, incapacitation.
2026-11-02 05:07:54
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Mercier Beaumont :
Why the core matters: at FL350 the wing was at a lift coefficient near 0.36. Each 10 m/s of updraft adds ~2.4° AOA and ~0.56 g. A 15 m/s gust takes it to ~0.66, at the buffet bound implied by its earlier FL410 cruise. Climbing to FL370 shrinks the margin.
2026-11-02 05:07:32
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Mercier Beaumont :
12:47:56 the jet flies into a storm core. A NEXRAD analysis: 34 dBZ at its altitude, 52 dBZ below, tops near 47,000 ft. It wasn't over the storm. It was 12,000 ft below the tops. It climbed 450 ft, and 20 seconds later the descent began. (radar: LiveStormChasers)
2026-11-02 05:06:34
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Mercier Beaumont :
12:48:16 descent begins 12:48:28 Mayday, 10,000 ft/min 12:48:37 overspeed, 20,000 ft/min 12:49:02 about 60° of bank 12:49:21 last call 12:49:32 impact beside Military Trail The crew kept working it and talking to ATC the whole way down.
2026-11-02 05:06:50
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Mercier Beaumont :
12:47:16, crew: moderate turbulence, bounced up to ~700 ft. 12:47:33: light clear ice, OAT −47 °C. Below about −40 °C liquid water can't stay supercooled, so "ice" up there points to ice crystals. They don't stick to wings. They can clog heated pitot probes and engine cores.
2026-11-02 05:06:22
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Mercier Beaumont :
Sources: FAA and Palm Beach County statements; AP, CNN, AVweb, NBC Miami; ADS-B Exchange and Flightradar24 tracks; LiveATC audio; radar analysis by LiveStormChasers. Speeds, angles and the recovery math are my estimates. Not an NTSB product.
2026-11-02 05:08:26
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