@quantpad: Initial balance backtest: the first hour's high and low breakout tested on 15 years of S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, every session 2011-2025. Trader Dale's channel says the initial balance (the 9:30-10:30 high and low) "will breach both sides" about 20% of the time and at least one side 80% of the time, and teaches: after 10:30, a close above it means look for longs, a close below means look for shorts. We coded it that way on one-minute bars: first close outside after 10:30, enter the next minute, hold to the 15:59 close, one contract, $16.50 a round turn. His numbers: both sides broke on 28.3% of S&P days and 23.3% of Nasdaq days. Close. But at least one side broke on 97.8% (S&P) and 96.0% (Nasdaq) of days, not 80%. After a close outside, price came back through the other side about one day in four (26.3% S&P, 22.4% Nasdaq). Trading it as stated: S&P 3,612 trades, -$20,323 after costs, won 5 of 15 years; 2022 alone made +$51,102. Nasdaq +$19,684, all of it from 2022 (+$82,700). What we also ran: a stop at the middle of the first hour's range made +$49,833 on the S&P in-sample, but -$9,765 at double costs. Walked forward from 2014, re-picking the best of 12 versions each year on past years only: S&P +$27,168 (all of it 2022), Nasdaq -$67,088. Not modelled: his volume profile, prior-day levels and anything read by eye. This tests the stated rule. Takeaway: a break that happens nearly every day is not a signal by itself. Every CME futures trade since 2010 is built into QuantPad. I built this in QuantPad. Link in bio. #QuantPad #backtesting #daytrading #futurestrading #tradingstrategy

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Monday 02 November 2026 18:05:14 GMT