I’ve expected Ken Paxton to win this race for most of the cycle, but I now think James Talarico could just barely pull it off. Early voting has looked encouraging for Democrats, with record midterm participation and strong turnout in major urban and suburban areas. This race is still a complete toss-up, but the enthusiasm around Talarico and a national environment that I think is terrible for Republicans have made me reconsider my prediction. I think Talarico is an incredible campaigner and a particularly good fit for Texas. His fundraising and the excitement surrounding his campaign have given Democrats a real opportunity, especially against someone like Paxton. I expect Democratic gains in the Austin, Houston, and Dallas metro areas to be critical, with the suburbs potentially providing the extra votes he needs to get over the line. However, I still think polling is overestimating Talarico, and we absolutely cannot underestimate Texas’s enormous rural Republican electorate. Those voters could easily keep this seat Republican, but my prediction is that their turnout won’t quite be enough to overcome Talarico’s gains elsewhere. I’m expecting an extremely close result, and I currently have James Talarico winning by just 0.2 percentage points, flipping this Senate seat to Democrats. #texas #jamestalarico #trump #politics #midtermelections2026 - @predictthevote