My final Senate prediction has Democrats taking back control with 52 seats to Republicans’ 48, flipping Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas without losing any of their own seats. Texas and Ohio are easily my least confident calls, with both decided by less than half a percentage point. Texas is more Republican, but I think James Talarico’s strength as a campaigner and rising political figure helps offset that. Sherrod Brown has a more established political image in Ohio, but I think the national environment will be just strong enough for both Democrats to barely win. I expect Mary Peltola’s independent image to help her narrowly flip Alaska, while Troy Jackson barely defeats Susan Collins in Maine. Collins’s entrenched incumbency makes that race especially difficult, but I think the environment ultimately carries Jackson through. North Carolina and Georgia should produce more comfortable Democratic wins than many expected earlier in the cycle. I also have Democrats holding Michigan narrowly with Abdul El-Sayed, while Peggy Flanagan wins Minnesota by a margin closer to Georgia and North Carolina, with the fraud scandals and her more progressive image limiting her advantage. New Hampshire should stay Democratic with Chris Pappas, although I think Republicans recruited a strong challenger and will make it competitive. Iowa is one of my sleeper races, with Josh Turek coming very close but ultimately falling short. I’m not particularly impressed with him as a candidate, but I think Ashley Hinson’s weaknesses, frustrations with Republican leadership, and the Libertarian candidate will make it extremely close. Kansas should also be competitive, but I don’t buy the expectations of a Democratic flip in such a Republican state at the federal level. I expect Pete Ricketts to hold Nebraska, while Montana’s three-way race makes a Democratic victory difficult. Independent candidates in Idaho and South Dakota also make those races interesting, although I still have both staying Republican. Elsewhere, I think South Carolina gets competitive largely because of Lindsey Graham’s weaknesses, while Louisiana and Mississippi move closer to single digits without quite getting there. Republicans should still hold those seats, but they show how far I expect the environment to reach. Several of my closest calls could easily go the other way, especially Texas, Ohio, and Maine, but I ultimately think Democrats will narrowly put together the flips they need. This is my final Senate map—and the last prediction of this project. Now we wait for the votes. #ussenate #politics #midtermelections #electionday #politics - @predictthevote