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Rainy ✝️❤️🌸

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Wednesday 04 November 2026 20:21:03 GMT

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JG🦋 :

Amen

2026-11-05 03:28:58

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➡️ Quantitative Finance From Scratch, Part 18: Fat Tails On Black Monday in 1987, the Dow fell 22.6% in a single day. The bell curve says that should never happen. Real prices make big moves far more often than the bell curve from part 4 predicts. With the same volatility (part 7), a fat-tailed curve is taller in the middle and heavier at the edges. Our simulated test uses assumed numbers: 100 years of trading days at 1% a day, once with a bell curve and once with a Student t curve (3 degrees of freedom) at the same swing. Days that move more than 5%: bell curve 0, fat tails 74 Worst day: bell curve -4.1%, fat tails -25.5% Calm days (within 1%): bell curve 68%, fat tails 82% The opening chart shows the real one-day drop: the Dow closed at 2,246.74 on Friday, October 16, 1987 and at 1,738.74 on Monday, October 19. The path in between is schematic. Black Monday under our assumed bell curve with 1% a day: a 22.6-swing fall, expected once in about 1.8 x 10^110 years. Under the fat-tailed model: about once in 216 years. Both are model numbers, not forecasts. Why it matters: normal distribution does often not depict reality and fat tails are common to be assumed. This video is for education only, and nothing in it is financial advice. #quantfinance #fattails #blackmonday #finance #python

➡️ Quantitative Finance From Scratch, Part 18: Fat Tails On Black Monday in 1987, the Dow fell 22.6% in a single day. The bell curve says that should never happen. Real prices make big moves far more often than the bell curve from part 4 predicts. With the same volatility (part 7), a fat-tailed curve is taller in the middle and heavier at the edges. Our simulated test uses assumed numbers: 100 years of trading days at 1% a day, once with a bell curve and once with a Student t curve (3 degrees of freedom) at the same swing. Days that move more than 5%: bell curve 0, fat tails 74 Worst day: bell curve -4.1%, fat tails -25.5% Calm days (within 1%): bell curve 68%, fat tails 82% The opening chart shows the real one-day drop: the Dow closed at 2,246.74 on Friday, October 16, 1987 and at 1,738.74 on Monday, October 19. The path in between is schematic. Black Monday under our assumed bell curve with 1% a day: a 22.6-swing fall, expected once in about 1.8 x 10^110 years. Under the fat-tailed model: about once in 216 years. Both are model numbers, not forecasts. Why it matters: normal distribution does often not depict reality and fat tails are common to be assumed. This video is for education only, and nothing in it is financial advice. #quantfinance #fattails #blackmonday #finance #python

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