@quantpad: How wide your stop should be in a Nasdaq correction: every first close 10% under the high on NQ and ES futures since 2011 The Nasdaq 100 fell into correction territory after its October peak. NQ futures closed 10.62% under their Oct 6 high on Monday, Nov 2, and 9.26% under it on Nov 4. The S&P is 2.16% under its high and has not got there. Ricky Gutierrez says it sounds a lot worse than it is, so I tested it. There have been 18 such closes on NQ since 2011. A month (20 sessions) after the next open, 11 of the 17 finished were up, +3.51% on average against +1.32% from other sessions. But 4 of them fell past -20%: 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025. On the S&P, 3 of 7 were up, -0.45% on average. That is a small sample. The stop is the part with real numbers behind it. Long from the 9:30 open, a 1% stop was hit on 22.4% of normal NQ days and 39.7% of days starting in a correction (678 days). A 2% stop was hit 15.0%. The median day's range went from 1.07% to 1.94% (S&P 0.81% to 1.54%). Shorts were hit more often: 46.9% at 1%. Every threshold from 5% to 20% showed the same on both markets. Walked forward (expanding yearly from 2014, width picked on past years only): 40.2% became 12.8% against 24.3% normal, on 646 days. This counts stop hits, not profit. A wider stop loses more when it is hit, so cut the size. Buying it blind, walked forward: +$352,978 against +$423,163 held, on 11 round turns, too few to claim an edge. Costs at $33 barely change it. Waiting for a close back above the 20-day: +$80,164 over 20 sessions in sample vs +$148,069. Shorting it: -$148,630. Takeaway: don't panic, don't buy it blind. Double your stop, halve your size. I built this in QuantPad. It has every trade on the CME since 2010. Link in bio. #QuantPad #backtesting #futurestrading #nasdaq #algotrading

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Thursday 05 November 2026 07:03:45 GMT