@stephthefounder: breaking down (in regular non jargon-y language) what people mean when they talk about the fear of a ‘bubble’ around ai spending: the debate, in short: 📌 it is NOT a debate about whether ai is real (demand is objectively still growing fast). this is a debate about whether spending is sustainable (aka can companies keep borrowing at reasonable rates? and will demand/pricing make the investment worth it over time?) 🟢 “concerns are overblown” camp: demand is compounding (cloud +39% to +103%), the builders are still highly profitable on paper, and Alphabet’s recent bond sale was ~3× oversubscribed — lenders are lining up to fund the giants 🔴 “bubble” camp: cash flow has flipped negative, the gap is debt-funded, ~60% of the spend goes into chips that depreciate in 3–5 years, and a chunk of the “demand” is these companies paying each other (Microsoft alone has $60B+ committed to neocloud contracts) 🗓️ key events that re-triggered the concern: - Oct 25: Elon Musk posts that debt markets have “almost entirely shut off” for companies without non-AI revenue; predicts most neoclouds (companies that are 100% AI data center revenue, lol) won’t survive - Oct 28: Fed holds rates at 3.75–4.00% — aka borrowing debt stays expensive - Oct 21-30: big tech co’s report earnings. almost all are negative and have taken on lots of debt. only microsoft was cash-flow positive. stocks fall (even though many exhibited substantial growth - ie Google Cloud revenue up 103%) - Nov 2: the Nasdaq-100 was down 10%+ from its Oct 6 record - Nov 3: US midterms! data centers were a large-to-crucial factor for 56% (🤯) of voters, so this debate isn’t going anywhere 🎬 source of intro clip: mark cuban on diary of a ceo

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Thursday 05 November 2026 17:29:04 GMT