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➡️ Quantitative Finance from Scratch, part 16: position sizing and the Kelly criterion. Our game is simulated: a coin that wins 55% of the time, and every bet pays even money. 1,000 players start with $100 each and bet the same share of their money on each of 1,000 flips. Every bet size gets exactly the same flips, so only the size changes. The typical player (the median) after 1,000 flips: Bet 2%: $581 Bet 5%: $3,857 Bet 10%: $12,245, the most of all Bet 20%: $58, and 253 of 1,000 players lost more than 99% Bet 40%: $0, and 999 of 1,000 lost more than 99% The Kelly criterion picks the share that makes your money grow fastest over the long run. For an even-money bet, that is your edge: 55% minus 45%, which is 10%. Bigger bets mean bigger swings, and as part 9 showed, losses weigh more than gains: after losing 20%, you need 25% just to get back. Even at 10%, the ride is wild: 69 of the 1,000 players still ended below $100. Real edges are never known exactly, and overestimating yours means overbetting. Source: J. L. Kelly Jr.,
➡️ Quantitative Finance from Scratch, part 16: position sizing and the Kelly criterion. Our game is simulated: a coin that wins 55% of the time, and every bet pays even money. 1,000 players start with $100 each and bet the same share of their money on each of 1,000 flips. Every bet size gets exactly the same flips, so only the size changes. The typical player (the median) after 1,000 flips: Bet 2%: $581 Bet 5%: $3,857 Bet 10%: $12,245, the most of all Bet 20%: $58, and 253 of 1,000 players lost more than 99% Bet 40%: $0, and 999 of 1,000 lost more than 99% The Kelly criterion picks the share that makes your money grow fastest over the long run. For an even-money bet, that is your edge: 55% minus 45%, which is 10%. Bigger bets mean bigger swings, and as part 9 showed, losses weigh more than gains: after losing 20%, you need 25% just to get back. Even at 10%, the ride is wild: 69 of the 1,000 players still ended below $100. Real edges are never known exactly, and overestimating yours means overbetting. Source: J. L. Kelly Jr., "A New Interpretation of Information Rate", Bell System Technical Journal 35(4), pages 917 to 926 (1956). This video is for education only, and nothing in it is financial advice. #quantfinance #kellycriterion #finance #probability #python
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#creatorsearchinsights #rai #dz


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