@nbcnewyork: NYC isn't getting a White Christmas - that's according to The Old Farmer's Almanac, who just shared its white Christmas map. But their forecasts are made up to 18 months in advance. They're predicting what'll happen this winter before last winter has even happened. They claim to be about 80% accurate. That is a self-graded number — the test is just whether temperature and rain landed on the side of the 30-year average they predicted. Direction only: no amounts, no timing, no storms. And when outside researchers tested the claim — Walsh & Allen at the University of Illinois, "Testing the Farmer's Almanac," Weatherwise, Oct. 1981 — across 60 monthly forecasts for 32 U.S. stations, the Almanac got the direction of the temperature departure right 50.7% of the time and precipitation 51.9%, versus 50% by chance. A coin flip. Christmas is in 7 weeks, we're impatient, we want to know now. And the OFA map isn't that different from the historical probability — especially in the Northeast. For the city, we have at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning only about 13% of the time. So I'd bet against it too. Especially this year, with a strong El Niño — warm and wet in late December usually means rain, not snow. #weather #snow #winter #christmas

NBC New York

Open In TikTok:

Region: US

Thursday 05 November 2026 22:18:38 GMT