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@606_barbershop: 606 Barbershop ✅#ladybarber💈✂️🔥 #sterlingva #dmv #barber #dmvhairstylist
606_barbershop
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Friday 06 November 2026 02:28:44 GMT
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Win rate backtest: the "86% win rate" MACD strategy and five popular indicators on 16 years of S&P and Nasdaq futures. TradingLab's video, "BEST MACD Trading Strategy [86% Win Rate]", has 4.6M views and calls it one of the highest win rate strategies you can do. I tested the rule rather than proposing it: MACD crosses below zero with price above the 200 EMA, target 1.5x risk, every 30-minute ES and NQ bar from January 2011 to November 2026. At that target it won 41.1% on ES (2,022 trades) and 41.4% on NQ. With the video's own stop past the 200 EMA: 42.4% and 40.8%. A coin flip at the same moments with the same stop won 39.7%. Break-even at 1.5R is 40%. I ran plain MACD, RSI 30/70, a 9/21 EMA cross, a Bollinger fade and Supertrend the same way, at 1.5R and 2R, on both markets, against 1,000 coin flips each. 0 of 24 beat the 95th percentile of their coin flips on net profit. Chance alone would give 1.2. Then I moved one number. Same entries, target 0.15R: 88.6% on ES, 87.1% on NQ. After $16.50 costs that made +$982 in sixteen years on ES, 38 cents a trade, and lost $9,497 on NQ. On ES every target from 0.1R to 3R landed 1 to 3 points above 1/(1+R) before costs. A win rate is mostly the target. Net at 1.5R: ES -$16,250, NQ +$34,232, and at $33 costs -$49,614 and +$2,073. With the video's stop: +$13,790 and +$37,531. ES net +$21,818 in 2011-18 and -$38,069 in 2019-26. Buy and hold one contract: ES +$270,571, NQ +$412,528. Walked forward (expanding yearly from 2014, 13 folds, picking the best prior entry, timeframe and target): ES -$47,218, NQ +$205,328, of which $124,998 was 2020. Not tested: the video's support and resistance levels, which are judgment, and other markets. This is futures. Before you trust a win rate, ask what the target was. I built this in QuantPad. It has every trade on the CME since 2010. Link in bio. #QuantPad #backtesting #tradingstrategy #futurestrading #algotrading
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