@thespinoffnz: There are still roughly 400,000 votes left to count in the New Zealand election. That's around 14% of the total number of votes. These are the "special votes", and they include votes from people overseas or people who voted in a different electorate to their own. Historically, these special votes have favoured parties on the left. In the last election, for example, Te Pāti Māori picked up two more seats from specials, the Labour Party gained one and the National Party lost two. However, this election there are fewer special votes, in part due to the government changing the rules to make it impossible to enrol during the voting period. With that in mind, how will the results change between the preliminary results and the final count? Robbie Nicol is here to break down a few possible scenarios. Filmed and edited by Isaiah Tour. Written and presented by @robbienicol. Made with the support of @nzonair. #NowYouKnow

The Spinoff
The Spinoff
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Region: NZ
Sunday 08 November 2026 03:42:24 GMT
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rebecca_kc18
Rebecca :
Greeeen!!!
2026-11-08 04:07:58
231
drunktankgunner
DrunkTankGunner :
Luxon ruled out Opportunity. Keep it in mind. Remind people. https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSpBfe12p/
2026-11-08 06:12:40
12
tetanusfingers
Angela Thornton 🇳🇿 :
Yes. Choice 3
2026-11-08 03:47:33
49
johannes_mackay
Johannes Mackay :
given that you've got a history of predicting things.. you might be right
2026-11-08 04:45:50
25
yashmmclarke
Major PAIN :
I think New Zealand should be a state of Australia
2026-11-08 13:13:16
0
aotearoa_ben
Ben G :
If you thought Luxon was bad at negotiating last time, this time is going to be incredible (in a bad way)
2026-11-08 05:17:27
17
jontepono
Tāhine :
option 3 isnt most likely. it's probably 50/50 at best
2026-11-08 07:01:25
1
pabeauchamp
Pahaha :
This sounds like one of those whack math problems 😅
2026-11-08 11:41:24
0
xfvnze
boredom incarnate :
I'm curious why does national have a seat lead although they have a lower percentage?
2026-11-08 10:57:16
0
gaza.the.soul.of.my.soul
D :
these explanations are helpful, thanks 😊
2026-11-08 10:41:28
0
tuakaj
Conway J :
option 3 is so stupid and with our run of luck lately, it would not land in our favor.
2026-11-08 04:04:13
7
theenterpriseinc
The Enterprise :
guys I'm back to say that the wacky and wild way that robbie moves activates my fight or flight response
2026-11-08 06:30:28
0
tanewha61
skittles :
I call heads National
2026-11-08 09:28:11
0
kiwiwayne3
kiwiwayne3 :
It’s possible to win lotto too ✅ well done coalition ❤️
2026-11-08 09:22:41
0
tester172728
TESTER1718 :
NATIONAL!!!!!
2026-11-08 06:27:10
0
hawaikihou
Hawaiki Hou 🖤🤍♥️ :
it's possible that Marama and Chippy let Uncle Wini know that Chippy is happy to drop the leadership for the sake of the left and give ol Uncs a great and memorable last term at the Beehive. can u tell I'm tired of all the other scenarios 😏 gotta find a sliver of hope somewhere
2026-11-08 04:04:41
12
makayla.231
mak ( marjreeces version) :
I honestly think national payed people to vote for them
2026-11-08 04:04:38
15
thenewruusta
thenewruusta :
National cannot be our government again. Take them away 😭😭😭
2026-11-08 04:39:12
6
swiftie_nz
swiftie_nz🥝 Black Ferns Fan🏉 :
I think we need to do something about the fact that the current coalition changed the rules to disenfranchise left voters … even when told by the electoral commission that it would not speed things up … they cant get in through cheating, we are not the USA, why are we not fighting this?!?!
2026-11-08 05:07:01
5
rogue8146
Rogue :
really hope opportunity shuts luxon down, don't let him go back on his word (as usual)
2026-11-08 06:15:52
2
zeek8433
zeek :
these options just give the high likelihood of the same government for the next 3 years. sadge.
2026-11-08 06:16:58
2
user3311225823553
user3311225823553 :
as long as its not the dirty greens or tpm involved i think we will all make it👌
2026-11-08 10:37:31
0
swiftie_nz
swiftie_nz🥝 Black Ferns Fan🏉 :
We the people on the ground… the majority… want change… we need to activate and operationalise now before anything is decided … whether it be legal action? A hikoi? Protests? Walk out of jobs? Black outs of buying things? We need to do somehting before anything is signed and sealed
2026-11-08 05:08:40
0
carakcarpenter
CaraKCarpenter :
We low key need a referendum on MMP. It’s ridiculous that National got this many overhang seats
2026-11-08 10:25:05
0
apple.user6868263
Apple User686826 :
😁😁😁
2026-11-08 09:17:09
0
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