Courtne the Great :
IONQ to $19.90 Monday….
Why Bitcoin dropped to $62,000:
The Fed flipped to hikes
October CPI came in hot — +0.4% vs +0.3% expected. Now traders are pricing a ∼90% chance of a Fed rate HIKE in December, and the 10-year yield is over 5.15%. Bitcoin pays you nothing to hold it, so when rates go up, money leaves Bitcoin first.
ETF money is leaving
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have had 7 straight days of outflows, about $1.91B pulled since Nov 5. BlackRock's IBIT alone lost ∼$908M in 5 sessions. That's institutions selling, not retail.
Stablecoins disappeared — $11.5B gone
USDT + USDC + DAI supply dropped a record $11.5B in 30 days. That's the cash that sits on the sidelines ready to buy the dip. When that cash leaves, there's nobody to catch the fall.
Saturday liquidation cascade
Crypto trades 24/7, but Saturday there's no stock market, no ETF buying. BTC slipped under $65,000 around 1pm ET Saturday, and then:
> $360M liquidated in 5 minutes, ∼$691M in 1 hour, ∼$1.8B in 24 hours — 94% of it longs.
That's forced selling. Not whales dumping — longs getting wiped out, which forces more selling, which wipes out more longs.
Plus the background stuff: NVDA CEO resigning Thursday, and MSCI kicking Strategy out of its indexes after Nov 30.
What about Monday — a new 20% crash?
I don't think we get -20% in one day on stocks. Here's why:
That "20% crash Monday" talk is fear porn on X. It's possible to get a nasty gap down, but a true -20% crash needs a real shock — like a bank failing, or NVDA missing earnings by a mile on Tuesday.
What I think is more likely for Monday:
Base case (60%): Stocks gap down -1% to -3% at 9:30, Bitcoin drags QQQ / IREN / CRWV down with it, then buyers step in mid-day. NVDA earnings are Tuesday — nobody wants to be fully short into that.
Bad case (30%): Bitcoin breaks $60,000 over the weekend, stocks gap down -4% to -5%, NVDA breaks $150. Still not -20%.
Crash case (10%): Something breaks over the weekend — a big fund blowup, another hack, Fed speaker says 50bp hike. Then yes, you could see -8% to -10% fast.
2026-11-15 03:18:54